EUA sanções casinos (peg)
A revogação em julho, como represália, do status comercial preferencial acordado pelos Estados Unidos a Hong Kong tem graves consequências. As repercussões econômicas foram imediatas na ex-colônia britânica, que já se encontrava em recessão. E os produtos “Made in Hong Kong” foram os primeiros a serem afetados. https://plataformamedia.com/2020/09/06/made-in-hong-kong-vitima-das-tensoes-entre-eua-e-china/
Na terça-feira, Donald Trump assinou o decreto que encerra o estatuto económico e comercial especial que os EUA concediam a Hong Kong, além de uma lei que prevê a imposição de novas sanções à China, por “extinguir a liberdade” na cidade, um centro financeiro internacional e regional. “Hoje [terça-feira], assinei legislação e uma ordem executiva para responsabilizar a China pelas suas acções agressivas contra o povo de Hong Kong”, afirmou Donald Trump, citado pelo The Guardian. “Hong Kong vai passar a ser tratado da mesma forma que tratamos a China continental”, acrescentou.
O decreto assinado pelo Presidente norte-americano põe fim às regalias aos cidadãos com passaporte de Hong Kong, que passam a ter tratamento semelhante aos cidadãos chineses, e suspende vários acordos entre a região administrativa especial e Washington, nomeadamente ao nível da extradição, treino de polícias, exportação de armas e programas de defesa e de cooperação entre universidades e centros de investigação. O decreto permite ainda o congelamento de propriedades e bens de estrangeiros ligados à nova lei de segurança nacional ou que estejam envolvidos em casos de violação dos direitos humanos. https://www.publico.pt/2020/07/15/mundo/noticia/china-ameaca-retaliar-fim-estatuto-especial-hong-kong-aprovado-eua-1924473
- The survey, conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong between July 6 and July 9, polled 183 respondents on China’s new national security law and what it means for businesses. Of the 76% in total who expressed concern about the new security law, about 41% was “extremely concerned,” while 36.6% was “somewhat concerned. The introduction of the law had sparked fears about the impact of Hong Kong ’s status as a global financial hub. However, more than 64% of the respondents indicated that their companies have no plans to move out of Hong Kong. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/13/amcham-survey-on-impact-of-china-national-security-law-in-hong-kong.html
Alguns dos principais assessores do presidente Donald Trump querem que os EUA enfraqueçam a indexação do dólar de Hong Kong à moeda americana. A ideia de atingir a indexação do dólar de Hong Kong – talvez limitando a capacidade de bancos de Hong Kong de comprar dólar americano – foi sugerida como parte das discussões entre assessores do secretário de Estado dos EUA, Michael Pompeo, e não foi levada aos altos escalões da Casa Branca, o que indica que ainda não ganhou força, segundo pessoas que falaram sobre o assunto sob condição de anonimato. A proposta enfrenta forte oposição de outros membros do governo, segundo os quais tal medida poderia prejudicar apenas bancos de Hong Kong e os EUA, e não a China, disseram.Outra pessoa alertou que a ideia de atingir a indexação ao dólar dos EUA está entre últimas opções possíveis em discussão. Essas ideias incluem o cancelamento de um tratado de extradição EUA-Hong Kong e o término da cooperação com a polícia de Hong Kong, disse a pessoa. No mês passado, Chan disse que o banco central da China poderia fornecer dólares americanos caso os EUA impusessem sanções ao território. A indexação ao dólar é sustentada por cerca de US$ 440 bilhões em reservas internacionais, o que representa mais de duas vezes o dinheiro da cidade em circulação, disse Chan à China Central Television. Eddie Yue, presidente da Autoridade Monetária de Hong Kong, disse no mês passado que qualquer medida para negar o acesso de Hong Kong ao sistema de compensação em dólares dos EUA seria um cenário “apocalíptico” que “também enviaria ondas de choque aos mercados financeiros globais, incluindo os EUA”.
A proposta é uma “arma nuclear” e corre o risco de uma dissociação completa entre China e EUA se implementada, disse Xia Le, economista-chefe para Ásia no BBVA Hong Kong. “É tecnicamente difícil de impor e vai afetar muito os EUA”. Hong Kong tem sua moeda atrelada ao dólar americano desde 1983, permitindo que oscile em um intervalo bastante rígido que geralmente gira em torno de 7,8 por dólar americano. A moeda permaneceu forte devido à sua vantagem de rendimento sobre o dólar dos EUA, demanda por ofertas de ações de empresas chinesas e fluxos persistentes para o mercado acionário local. A possibilidade de desaparecimento da indexação do dólar de Hong Kong se tornou foco das principais estratégias financeiras, incluindo a do fundador da Hayman Capital Management, Kyle Bass, que iniciou um fundo no mês passado apostando no colapso da indexação da moeda de Hong Kong, segundo pessoas com conhecimento do assunto. BLOOMBERG https://www.moneytimes.com.br/assessores-de-trump-miram-indexacao-do-dolar-de-hong-kong/
controversial new national security law: abide by the rules or support US sanctions against China for imposing the legislation. Company insiders and diplomatic sources said it was too early to assess the impact of the law on business in the financial hub. But its vague language and broad provisions have stoked fears and may result in “huge insecurity” for foreign firms – particularly a clause stating any person or organisation that imposes sanctions could be punished. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3092229/foreign-firms-hong-kong-face-huge-insecurity-over-national?utm_medium=email&utm_source=mailchimp&utm_campaign=enlz-scmp_today&utm_content=20200708&MCUID=3d06933c40&MCCampaignID=a48da0f926&MCAccountID=3775521f5f542047246d9c827&tc=9
While Macau Chief Executive Ho Iat Seng this week backed the law, the SAR’s US gaming operators – Wynn Macau, MGM China and Sands China – have all been sure to pay their dues to China by hosting separate “Two Sessions Sharing Meetings” in June, inviting Macau’s NPC deputies and CPPCC members, as well as officials from the Macau Liaison Office and the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), to convey the “Spirits of Two Sessions” for their employees Eilo Wing-Yat Yu, associate professor of the Department of Government and Public Administration of the University of Macau, said hosting such events was “strange” but understandable given the political atmosphere between the US, China, Hong Kong and Macau. “It’s like pressing the SOS button, they have no choice but to host this prestigious project,” Yu said. https://www.asgam.com/index.php/2020/07/01/macaus-us-linked-gaming-operators-pressing-sos-button-to-show-pro-china-posturing-professor/
The local financial community is already bracing themselves for this possibility. Felix Chung, leader of the pro-Beijing, pro-business Liberal Party, warned that the United States could target Hong Kong’s currency peg with the U.S. dollar. “If the U.S. denies Hong Kong its access to the U.S. dollar, this will be the end of Hong Kong,” said Chung. This will, indeed, also be the end of the Chinese economy as we know it. It is useful to be reminded of the strategic importance of Hong Kong to China. As China’s only global international center, Hong Kong alone controls over 70 percent of China’s global renminbi payments. Hong Kong also holds the key to China’s financial liberalization, accounting for more than half of overseas holdings in Chinese onshore equities.
More fundamentally, Hong Kong offers the only meaningful way for Chinese capital to access dollar financing, without which China will be cut off from the global economy. It is no coincidence that at a time when the United States is tightening listing requirements for Chinese firms, the likes of Alibaba and JD.com have been seeking a secondary listing at the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong.
Any U.S. financial sanctions on Hong Kong will therefore break the financial lifeline for China. On the other hand, it is inconceivable that the United States will target Hong Kong’s currency peg directly, as it is the city’s own prerogative to decide which currency to use. More important, the United States is not yet ready for outright financial decoupling from China, which will deal a devastating blow to the virus-stricken U.S. economy.
More plausibly the United States will resort to selective financial decoupling to contain the spillover to its own economy. A potent weapon could be a threat to impose financial sanctions on the Bank of China (Hong Kong), or BOCHK. Given that BOCHK is the sole clearing bank for offshore renminbi in Hong Kong, U.S. sanctions will spell the end of renminbi internationalization in a single stroke. This is not all. As one of the three note-issuing banks in Hong Kong, BOCHK is mandated to back up every unit of Hong Kong dollars it issues with an equivalent amount of U.S. dollars. A sanctioned BOCHK will therefore suffer from the sterilization of its holdings of U.S. dollars and Hong Kong dollars at the same time. This is enough to trigger a major financial crisis in Hong Kong and, by extension, China.~Macro Yuk-sing Kwan is Editor at Resonate, a Cantonese Periodical. The piece is part of Project 2047, a flagship project of the Hong Kong Global Research Council (HKGRC) that covers viewpoints from both ends of the political spectrum. https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/chinas-great-wall-of-finance-shows-first-signs-of-a-crack-in-hong-kong/
American executives in Hong Kong are nervous about the city’s future as a center for global business. For the minority already considering a Plan B, though, Singapore might be the only realistic option.More than 50 respondents to a recent survey conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Hong Kong said they were considering moving capital, assets or business operations to “other locations” after Beijing approved plans for a national security law for Hong Kong. The law will be drafted over the next two months and its implementation will bypass the city’s legislature. https://www.wraltechwire.com/2020/06/14/if-us-firms-bolt-from-hong-kong-due-to-new-china-secuirty-law-where-do-they-go/
No passado houve quem defendesse que a reserva fiscal de Hong Kong deveria ser feita com Renminbis (RMB) – a moeda chinesa- em vez de ser feita com dólares americanos. Do ponto de vista económico, visto que Hong Kong está mais susceptível à influência da economia chinesa, esta opinião parecia mais adequada. Mas como o RMB ainda não se conseguiu impôr completamente no mercado internacional, Hong Kong continua a precisar do dólar americano para dar credibilidade à emissão da sua moeda. https://hojemacau.com.mo/2020/06/09/emissao-de-moeda-em-hong-kong/
The steep deterioration in US-China tensions, coupled with the coronavirus outbreak poses serious threats to foreign firms involved in the Macau gaming industry, according to international risk advisory, Steve Vickers and Associates In particular, the six gaming concessionaires in Macau will be most vulnerable at the end of their current gaming concessions in 2022. “Frictions between the US and China over trade, the pandemic, Hong Kong and the South China Sea pose an additional threat to the industry, not least by overshadowing plans to tender for new gaming concessions.” Furthermore, U.S. casino companies, who were first brought into Macau due to their expertise in opening and operating casinos, would not have the same sway as they did in the past. “The commercial argument for US involvement – that Chinese companies needed American expertise – is derelict. Macau is now of age; and its casinos and junket promoters can often provide services better geared to the Chinese market than those offered by American companies.” https://agbrief.com/headline/u-s-china-tensions-a-heightening-threat-to-foreign-firms-in-macau/ 30/6 A empresa de consultoria de risco e inteligência de mercado Steve Vickers & Associates (SVA) emitiu um alerta aos investidores, abordando sérias ameaças a empresas estrangeiras envolvidas na indústria de jogos de Macau.A SVA disse que as tensões crescentes poderiam ofuscar os planos para a concorrência pública das concessões de jogos para 2022 e apresentar uma ‘enorme vulnerabilidade’ para as seis concessionárias de jogos atuais. A empresa antecipa que Pequim se perguntará se os cassinos controlados pelos EUA devem lucrar com os jogadores chineses em meio a conflitos comerciais e políticos. “O argumento comercial para o envolvimento dos EUA – de que as empresas chinesas precisavam de conhecimento americano – é abandonado. Macau agora é maior de idade e seus cassinos e promotores de feiras geralmente oferecem serviços mais voltados para o mercado chinês do que os oferecidos por empresas americanas”, argumentou SVA. http://bnldata.com.br/industria-de-jogos-de-macau-ameacada-pelo-conflito-china-eua/
Ricardo Chi Sen Siu, Associate Professor in Business Economics and Director of the Centre for Career and Research Advancement in Integrated Resorts at Macau University, told Inside Asian Gaming the US Presidential election in November could have a big say in future relations between the nations. “No matter the US sanctions on Hong Kong in recent days or US-China trade disputes in recent years, it is hard to have any clear and accurate predictions about the influence on Macau before the US election,” Sui said. “There are too many uncertainties.” The Chinese NPC will offer legislative details of its national security law in Hong Kong in late June, with Siu suggesting Western governments will wait until then before making any decisions on how to react. Unlike Hong Kong, Macau has always maintained a close relationship with the Beijing Government, and Macau officials and NPC deputies have expressed support for the Hong Kong national security law. But Sui said even though the implementation of the national security law would lead US capital to be withdrawn from Hong Kong, “it’s still too early to say whether the US-China relations would cause difficulties for US capital on the re-tendering of gaming licenses in 2022 in Macau.” Sui suggested the Macau SAR government and gaming operators keep an eye on developments between the US and China but should focus more on boosting their gaming and tourism offerings after the COVID-19 pandemic. https://www.asgam.com/index.php/2020/06/05/professor-too-early-to-predict-impact-of-us-china-tensions-over-hong-kong-on-macau-gaming-industry/
EMABRGO U.S. politicians want to swat China for ramming through sweeping security laws as part of a broader crackdown on restless Hong Kong. Starving Chinese banks of dollars to punish the most senior officials on both sides of the mainland border is a harsh option discussed on Thursday as part of a bipartisan bill. But it risks too much collateral damage. Sticking to naming, shaming and sanctioning individuals would be sharper and smarter. American dominance of the dollar system is a powerful weapon. Cutting off an entity from dollars cripples its ability to finance imports and exports, hedge forex risk and invest offshore. Such measures have hammered banks like Macau’s Banco Delta Asia and Bank of Kunlun for dealing with North Korea and Iran. And threats to treat other lenders in Greater China similarly prompted big share slumps. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-markets-hongkong-breakingviews/breakingviews-us-response-to-hong-kong-calls-for-precision-idUSKBN23C0DT
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